Author: Lauren Tindale; Michelle Coombe; Jessica E Stockdale; Emma Garlock; Wing Yin Venus Lau; Manu Saraswat; Yen-Hsiang Brian Lee; Louxin Zhang; Dongxuan Chen; Jacco Wallinga; Caroline Colijn
Title: Transmission interval estimates suggest pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: 66ulqu11_20
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20029983 doi: medRxiv preprint (assuming independence) then the difference between the mean serial interval and the mean incubation time. We calculate the reproduction number as in [18] : R = exp rµ − 1/2r 2 σ 2 with r the exponential growth rate, µ the mean serial interval and σ the standard deviation of the serial interval. To .....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20029983 doi: medRxiv preprint (assuming independence) then the difference between the mean serial interval and the mean incubation time. We calculate the reproduction number as in [18] : R = exp rµ − 1/2r 2 σ 2 with r the exponential growth rate, µ the mean serial interval and σ the standard deviation of the serial interval. To obtain confidence intervals for R we resample µ and σ from our bootstrap samples; this preserved covariation of µ and σ. Statistical analyses were performed using R [19] . Figure 1c indicates that symptom onset occurred 6.6 ± 4.8 (mean ± SD) days after the initial presumed viral exposure and hospitalization occurred 5.9 ± 5.1 days after symptom onset. The mean length of hospital stay was 13.3 ± 6.0 days before individuals recovered and were discharged.
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