Predicting outcome in acute severe colitis – controversies in clinical practice in 2021

Gupta, Vipin; Mohsen, Waled; Chapman, Thomas P; Satsangi, Jack

Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) remains a common medical emergency, with 25% of patients with ulcerative colitis experiencing at least one event in their disease course. Despite advances in medical therapy, ASUC continues to be associated with considerable morbidity and mortality, with up to 30% of patients requiring colectomy during initial admission. Our aim was to review the current controversies and recent progress in risk stratification, prediction of outcome, and personalisation of care in ASUC. We re-assess the use of Truelove and Witts’ criteria, serum biomarkers and the use of composite clinical indices in current clinical practice. We explore the potential for endoscopic prediction using defined validated indices for accurate and early prognostication, and the need to define outcome. We also consider the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we discuss the current research agenda including the application of new and emerging biomarkers coupled with multi-omics and the implications in management and optimisation of outcome.