Selected article for: "sensitivity analysis and transmission probability"
Author: Billy J Quilty; Charlie Diamond; Yang Liu; Hamish Gibbs; Timothy W Russell; Christopher I Jarvis; Kiesha Prem; Carl A B Pearson; Samuel J Clifford; Stefan Flasche; Petra Klepac; Rosalind M Eggo; Mark Jit
Title: The effect of inter-city travel restrictions on geographical spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Wuhan, China
  • Document date: 2020_4_21
    • ID: 6kiv3qi5_19
    Snippet: We assume that in the initial phases of the epidemic (prior to the cordon sanitaire), the effective daily reproduction number (Re) was 2.2 (15, 17) . The date at which the probability of sustained transmission exceeded a threshold of 95% (i.e, an outbreak occurring) given Re of 2.2 and k = 0.54 was used to evaluate the effect of travel restrictions (details in Supplementary Appendix 4). A sensitivity analysis for k using SARS-like (0.16) and H1N1.....
    Document: We assume that in the initial phases of the epidemic (prior to the cordon sanitaire), the effective daily reproduction number (Re) was 2.2 (15, 17) . The date at which the probability of sustained transmission exceeded a threshold of 95% (i.e, an outbreak occurring) given Re of 2.2 and k = 0.54 was used to evaluate the effect of travel restrictions (details in Supplementary Appendix 4). A sensitivity analysis for k using SARS-like (0.16) and H1N1-like (2.0) overdispersion in Re is shown in Table S3 . To simulate the effect of local non-pharmaceutical intervention measures (NPIs) such as physical distancing and workplace and school closures in addition to travel restrictions (18), we compare Re=2.2 in the absence of interventions (no change, unmitigated local outbreak), to 1.1 (50% reduction, slowing epidemic, Re>1), or 0.55 (75% reduction, suppressing epidemic, Re<1). We assume additional interventions took effect on the same date as the introduction of the cordon sanitaire, 23 January 2020.

    Search related documents:
    Co phrase search for related documents
    • additional intervention and intervention absence: 1
    • additional intervention and physical distancing: 1
    • additional intervention and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3
    • cordon sanitaire and local outbreak: 1
    • cordon sanitaire and physical distancing: 1, 2
    • cordon sanitaire and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3
    • daily reproduction number and effective daily reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
    • daily reproduction number and initial phase: 1, 2
    • daily reproduction number and physical distancing: 1, 2, 3
    • daily reproduction number and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
    • effective daily reproduction number and physical distancing: 1, 2
    • effective daily reproduction number and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
    • epidemic initial phase and initial phase: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
    • epidemic initial phase and local outbreak: 1
    • epidemic initial phase and physical distancing: 1
    • epidemic initial phase and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
    • epidemic suppress and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    • initial phase and physical distancing: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
    • initial phase and reproduction number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25