Author: Billy J Quilty; Charlie Diamond; Yang Liu; Hamish Gibbs; Timothy W Russell; Christopher I Jarvis; Kiesha Prem; Carl A B Pearson; Samuel J Clifford; Stefan Flasche; Petra Klepac; Rosalind M Eggo; Mark Jit
Title: The effect of inter-city travel restrictions on geographical spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Wuhan, China Document date: 2020_4_21
ID: 6kiv3qi5_35
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . No substantial difference was observed in the daily incidence in the scenarios with and without travel restrictions in the four cities after the cordon sanitaire was imposed on 23 January. By then there were enough infected people to sustain local transmission without imported infections ( Figure 3) . In an unmitigated outbreak where Re remains at 2.2, incidence continu.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . No substantial difference was observed in the daily incidence in the scenarios with and without travel restrictions in the four cities after the cordon sanitaire was imposed on 23 January. By then there were enough infected people to sustain local transmission without imported infections ( Figure 3) . In an unmitigated outbreak where Re remains at 2.2, incidence continues to increase exponentially. Reducing the effective reproduction number Re to simulate local control measures to reduce transmission did have a substantial effect; by 1 March, in Scenario 1 (Chunyun and cordon sanitaire) when Re was reduced by 75% to 0.55, the median daily incidence was 1 (95% CI 0 -42) infections in Beijing, 2 (95% CI 0 -31) infections in Chongqing, 0 (95% CI 0 -9) infections in Hangzhou, and 0 (95% CI 0 -11) infections in Shenzhen, which is comparable to the actual observed case counts on 1 March from the WHO Situation Report (1).
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