Author: Billy J Quilty; Charlie Diamond; Yang Liu; Hamish Gibbs; Timothy W Russell; Christopher I Jarvis; Kiesha Prem; Carl A B Pearson; Samuel J Clifford; Stefan Flasche; Petra Klepac; Rosalind M Eggo; Mark Jit
Title: The effect of inter-city travel restrictions on geographical spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Wuhan, China Document date: 2020_4_21
ID: 6kiv3qi5_74
Snippet: Equation 2 approximates the general daily proportion of travellers leaving Wuhan and entering a given city i. For the length of the study period (tmin to tmax), we take the sum of the estimated travel flow leaving Wuhan and entering city i (σt ✕ κit) and divide it by the sum of the total outflow from Wuhan σt over the same period. This was a key assumption as the pairwise travel flows between Wuhan and each other prefecture-level city was on.....
Document: Equation 2 approximates the general daily proportion of travellers leaving Wuhan and entering a given city i. For the length of the study period (tmin to tmax), we take the sum of the estimated travel flow leaving Wuhan and entering city i (σt ✕ κit) and divide it by the sum of the total outflow from Wuhan σt over the same period. This was a key assumption as the pairwise travel flows between Wuhan and each other prefecture-level city was only available between 1 Jan -1 Mar, 2020. Therefore this approximation of general flow magnitude was used for both out of date ranges (22 Nov -31 Dec) and simulated aspects of our scenarios i.e. Chunyun affected travel days in non-Chunyun scenarios.
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