A Comparative Analysis of Models for West Nile Virus

Wonham, M. J.; Lewis, M. A.

This chapter describes the steps needed to formulate, analyze and apply epidemiological models to vector-borne diseases. Our models focus on West Nile (WN) virus, an emerging infectious disease in North America, first identified in Africa. We begin by introducing a minimalist model for WN dynamics to illustrate the processes of model formulation, analysis, and application. We then revisit the question of model formulation to examine how two major biological assumptions affect the model structure and therefore its predictions. Next, we briefly compare these different model structures in an introductory exercise of model parameterization, validation, and comparison. Finally, we address model applications in more detail with two examples of how the model output can usefully be connected to public health applications.