Author: Michal Ben-Nun; Pete Riley; James Turtle; David P. Bacon; Steven Riley
Title: National and Regional Influenza-Like-Illness Forecasts for the USA Document date: 2018_4_27
ID: cheiabv0_50
Snippet: This study is slightly different from some prior studies of influenza forecasting [30] in 505 that it describes and assesses a subjective choice between multiple mechanistic models 506 as the basis of a prospective forecast, rather than describing the performance of a single 507 model or single ensemble of models used for an entirely objective forecast. Although 508 this could be viewed as a limitation of our work, because individual subjective d.....
Document: This study is slightly different from some prior studies of influenza forecasting [30] in 505 that it describes and assesses a subjective choice between multiple mechanistic models 506 as the basis of a prospective forecast, rather than describing the performance of a single 507 model or single ensemble of models used for an entirely objective forecast. Although 508 this could be viewed as a limitation of our work, because individual subjective decisions 509 cannot be reproduced, we suggest that the explicit description of a partially subjective 510 process is a strength. In weather forecasting, there is a long history of evaluating the 511 accuracy of entirely objective forecasts versus partially subjective forecasts [31, 32] .
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