Development and validation of nomogram to predict severe illness requiring intensive care follow up in hospitalized COVID-19 cases

Guner, Rahmet; Kayaaslan, Bircan; Hasanoglu, Imran; Aypak, Adalet; Bodur, Hurrem; Ates, Ihsan; Akinci, Esragul; Erdem, Deniz; Eser, Fatma; Izdes, Seval; Kalem, Ayse Kaya; Bastug, Aliye; Karalezli, Aysegul; Surel, Aziz Ahmet; Ayhan, Muge; Karaahmetoglu, Selma; Turan, Isıl Ozkocak; Arguder, Emine; Ozdemir, Burcu; Mutlu, Mehmet Nevzat; Bilir, Yesim Aybar; Sarıcaoglu , Elif Mukime; Gokcinar , Derya; Gunay, Sibel; Dinc, Bedia; Gemcioglu , Emin; Bilmez, Ruveyda; Aydos, Omer; Asilturk, Dilek; Inan, Osman; Buzgan, Turan

BACKGROUND: Early identification of severe COVID-19 patients who will need intensive care unit (ICU) follow-up and providing rapid, aggressive supportive care may reduce mortality and provide optimal use of medical resources. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict severe COVID-19 cases that would need ICU follow-up based on available and accessible patient values. METHODS: Patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between March 15, 2020, and June 15, 2020, were enrolled in this retrospective study with 35 variables obtained upon admission considered. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to select potential predictive parameters using 1000 bootstrap samples. Afterward, a nomogram was developed with 5 variables selected from multivariable analysis. The nomogram model was evaluated by Area Under the Curve (AUC) and bias-corrected Harrell's C-index with 95% confidence interval, Hosmer–Lemeshow Goodness-of-fit test, and calibration curve analysis. RESULTS: Out of a total of 1022 patients, 686 cases without missing data were used to construct the nomogram. Of the 686, 104 needed ICU follow-up. The final model includes oxygen saturation, CRP, PCT, LDH, troponin as independent factors for the prediction of need for ICU admission. The model has good predictive power with an AUC of 0.93 (0.902–0.950) and a bias-corrected Harrell's C-index of 0.91 (0.899–0.947). Hosmer–Lemeshow test p-value was 0.826 and the model is well-calibrated (p = 0.1703). CONCLUSION: We developed a simple, accessible, easy-to-use nomogram with good distinctive power for severe illness requiring ICU follow-up. Clinicians can easily predict the course of COVID-19 and decide the procedure and facility of further follow-up by using clinical and laboratory values of patients available upon admission. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06656-w.