COVID-19-associated mortality across the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council and how it compares to Europe: A comparative study

Rimawi, Ahmad; Rimawi, Asem

Introduction: In late 2019, a novel strain of coronavirus, discovered in the city of Wuhan, China, was found to cause a disease later named coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19. In January 2020, COVID-19 first reached the Gulf region. Afterwards, the disease spread rapidly across the countries of the Gulf and the number of COVID-19 cases rose significantly. Now, more than a year later, there are only a limited number of studies regarding COVID-19 and its behavior in this region. In this article, we aim to assess the mortality caused by the disease in the Gulf region by calculating the Case Fatality Rates (CFR) for all of the Gulf Cooperation countries and comparing the results with those of Europe. Methods: Data was obtained from the official statistics of the World Health Organization (WHO) from January to May 2020. From the data, the CFR was calculated for every Gulf and European country included in the study. Following the calculation, the results were compared and analyzed. To make our comparison more accurate, we added the total number of COVID-19 tests per 1000 population and the Health Access and Quality index for each individual country. Results: CFRs in the Gulf region to May 12, 2020 were: United Arab Emirates (1.06%), Kuwait (0.69%), Saudi Arabia (0.62%), Oman (0.45%), Bahrain (0.15%), and Qatar (0.06%). Within Europe over the same time period, 10 countries had CFRs above 10%, with the majority above 3%. Conclusions: Compared to Europe, the COVID-19 mortality rate in the Gulf region has been much lower. The difference in age groups between the Gulf region and Europe may be the most important factor, mainly due to a younger population and a smaller elderly demographic in the Gulf region. Although age is a strong factor for the lower CFR in the Gulf, other factors must also be considered. These include the number of COVID-19 tests conducted per population, different country capabilities, and varying criteria for reporting COVID-19 deaths(Table–1)(Table–2).