Two mechanisms for accelerated diffusion of COVID-19 outbreaks in regions with high intensity of population and polluting industrialization: the air pollution-to-human and human-to-human transmission dynamics

Mario Coccia

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . Coccia M. (2020) Two mechanisms for accelerated diffusion of COVID-19 outbreaks in regions with high intensity of population and polluting industrialization: the air pollution-to-human and human-to-human transmission dynamics Figure 1 : Regression line of Log Infected 1 April,2020 on Log Density inhabitants/km 2 2019, considering the groups of cities with days exceeding limits set for PM10 or ozone <, or 100 days. Table 11 shows results of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 considering the interpersonal contacts, measured with density of population in cities understudy. In short, results suggest that density of population explains the number of infected individuals, increasing the probability of human-to-human transmission. However, if we decompose the sample to consider the cities with 100 days exceeding limits set for PM10 or ozone and with >100 days exceeding limits set for PM10 or ozone, then the expected increase of number of infected individuals is higher in cities having more than 100 days exceeding limits set for PM10 or ozone. In particular, o Cities with 100 days exceeding limits set for PM10, an increase of 1% in density of population, it increases the expected number of infected by about 0.30% -Cities with >100 days exceeding limits set for PM10 or ozone, R 2 =0.45 -Cities with <100 days exceeding limits set for PM10 or ozone, R 2 =0.16