Opening Schools and Trends in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in European Countries

Buja, Alessandra; Zabeo, Federico; Cristofori, Vittorio; Paganini, Matteo; Baldovin, Tatjana; Fusinato, Riccardo; Boccuzzo, Giovanna; Cocchio, Silvia; Coretti, Silvia; Rebba, Vincenzo; Parpinel, Maria

Objectives: Benefits of school attendance have been debated against SARS-CoV-2 contagion risks. This study examined the trends of contagion before and after schools reopened across 26 countries in the European Union. Methods: We compared the average values of estimated R (t) before and after school reopening, identifying any significant increase with a one-sample t-test. A meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis were performed to calculate the overall increase in R (t) for countries in the EU and to search for relationships between R (t) before schools reopened and the average increase in R (t) afterward. Results: The mean reproduction number increased in 16 out of 26 countries. The maximum increase in R (t) was reached after a mean 28 days. We found a negative relationship between the R (t) before school reopening and its increasing after that event. By 45 days after the first day of school reopening, the overall average increase in R (t) for the European Union was 23%. Conclusion: We observed a significant increase in the mean reproduction number in most European countries, a public health issue that needs strategies to contain the spread of COVID-19.