Selected article for: "herd immunity and mortality reduce"
Author: Wei Aun Yap; Dhesi Baha Raja
Title: Time-variant strategies for optimizing the performance of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in protecting lives and livelihoods during the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Document date: 2020_4_17
    • ID: 180x1fvb_42
    Snippet: 'Shrink the area under curve' not just 'flatten the curve'. In all scenarios simulated 6 , the percentage of the initial population infected by Day 365, at which steady state without prior elimination of infections and without NPIs has been reached (analogous to herd immunity), is high but varies widely by scenario. In the baseline scenario, this percentage is the highest at 89.0 percent. In the most optimal scenario simulated for reducing cumula.....
    Document: 'Shrink the area under curve' not just 'flatten the curve'. In all scenarios simulated 6 , the percentage of the initial population infected by Day 365, at which steady state without prior elimination of infections and without NPIs has been reached (analogous to herd immunity), is high but varies widely by scenario. In the baseline scenario, this percentage is the highest at 89.0 percent. In the most optimal scenario simulated for reducing cumulative infections (Figure 7 Scenario E4) this was 17.9 percentage points lower. Applied on a global scale, this corresponds to sparing 1.4 billion people from the morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19 infection. B-series scenarios indicate that NPIs not only flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming health system capacity but shrink the area under the curve especially when applied towards the end of the outbreak. This insight is relevant even for countries which may have missed instituting NPI measures early as a final punch of NPIs to prevent overshoot, even after cases has peaked, will likely reduce mortality and morbidity independently of the effect of keeping the burden of COVID-19 cases within health system capacity.

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