Author: Tao Liu; Jianxiong Hu; Jianpeng Xiao; Guanhao He; Min Kang; Zuhua Rong; Lifeng Lin; Haojie Zhong; Qiong Huang; Aiping Deng; Weilin Zeng; Xiaohua Tan; Siqing Zeng; Zhihua Zhu; Jiansen Li; Dexin Gong; Donghua Wan; Shaowei Chen; Lingchuan Guo; Yan Li; Limei Sun; Wenjia Liang; Tie Song; Jianfeng He; Wenjun Ma
Title: Time-varying transmission dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China Document date: 2020_1_26
ID: 3e2soc6w_2
Snippet: As an emerging infectious disease, we need to quickly understand its etiological, epidemiological and clinical characteristics to take prevention and control measures. Several studies have described the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of NCP, and have demonstrated that it can transmitted between humans (4, 6) . A few studies have also estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) of NCP (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) . For instance, Li et .....
Document: As an emerging infectious disease, we need to quickly understand its etiological, epidemiological and clinical characteristics to take prevention and control measures. Several studies have described the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of NCP, and have demonstrated that it can transmitted between humans (4, 6) . A few studies have also estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) of NCP (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) . For instance, Li et al. computed the R0 of 2.2 using daily NCP data before January 4 in Wuhan. Our study using early epidemic stage data also found reproductive number of NCP was 2.9 (11) . However, most of these studies employed daily reporting cases at very early epidemic stage or were purely based on mathematical modeling. It has been suggested that epidemic size may be seriously under-reported due to the unknown etiology and lack of diagnosis protocol at early epidemic stage (12) , which may lead to underestimation of R0. In addition, for control measures to be optimized during ongoing NCP epidemics, temporal changes in reproduction number must be tracked. However, none of previous studies have estimated time-varying instantaneous reproduction number (Rt), which is author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
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