Quantifying the Effects of Social Distancing on theSpread of COVID-19

Daghriri, T.; Ozmen, O.

This paper studies the interplay between the social distancing and the spread of COVID-19 disease, a widely spread pandemic that has affected nearly most of the world population. Starting in China, now the virus has reached the United States of America with devastating consequences. Other countries severely affected by the pandemic are Brazil, Russia, United Kingdom, Spain, India, Italy, and France. Even though it is not possible to eliminate the spread of the virus from the world or any other country, it might be possible to reduce its effect by decreasing the amount of infected people. Implementing such policies need a good understanding of the systems dynamics, generally not possible with mathematical linear equations or Monte Carlo methods because human society is a complex adaptive system with complex and continuous feedback loops. As a result, we use agent-based methods to conduct our study. Moreover, recent agent-based modeling studies for the COVID-19 pandemic show significant promise assisting decision-makers in managing the crisis through applying some policies such as social distancing, disease testing, contact tracing, home isolation, providing good emergency and hospitalization strategies, and preventing traveling would lead to reduce the infection rates. Based on imperial college modeling studies that prove increasing levels of interventions could slow down the spread of disease and infection cases as much as possible, and taking into account that social distancing policy is considered to be the most important factor that was recommended to follow. Our proposed model is designed to test if increasing the social distancing policies strictness can slow down the spread of disease significantly or not, and find out what is the required safe level of social distancing. So, the model was run six times with six different percentages of social distancing with keeping the other parameters levels fixed for all experiments. The results of our study show that social distancing affects the spread of COVID-19 significantly, where the spread of disease and infection rates decrease once social distancing procedures are implemented at higher levels. Also, the behavior space tool was used to run ten experiments with different levels of social distancing which enough more supported the previous results. We conclude that applying and increasing social distancing policy levels led to significantly reduced infection rates which result in decreasing deaths. Both types of experiments prove that 80% to 100% of following social distancing policies reduces the infection rates dramatically.