Modelling the role of media induced fear conditioning in mitigating post-lockdown COVID-19 pandemic: perspectives on India

Kumar, Spandan; Sharma, Bhanu; Singh, Vikram

Several countries that have been successful in constraining the severity of COVID-19 pandemic via"lockdown"are now considering to slowly end it, mainly because of enormous socio-economic side-effects. An abrupt ending of lockdown can increase the basic reproductive number and undo everything; therefore, carefully designed exit strategies are needed to sustain its benefits post upliftment. To study the role of fear conditioning on mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in post-lockdown phase, in this work, we propose an age- and social contact- structures dependent Susceptible, Feared, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SFEIR) model. Simulating the SFEIR model on Indian population with fear conditioning via mass media (like, television, community radio, internet and print media) along with positive reinforcement, it is found that increase in fraction of feared people results in the significant decrease in the growth of infected population. The present study suggests that, during post-lockdown phase, media induced fear conditioning in conjunction with closure of schools for about one more year can serve as an important non-pharmaceutical intervention to substantially mitigate this pandemic in India. The proposed SFEIR model, by quantifying the influence of media in inducing fear conditioning, underlies the importance of community driven changes in country specific mitigation of COVID-19 spread in post-lockdown phase.