An agent-based epidemic model REINA for COVID-19 to identify destructive policies

Jouni T Tuomisto; Juha Yrjölä; Mikko Kolehmainen; Juhani Bonsdorff; Jami Pekkanen; Tero Tikkanen

This study therefore aims also to provide a timely input into the important Finnish policy discussion. As of writing, Finland's latest clearly communicated objective is still to just slow down the epidemic, corresponding to the mitigation strategy. However, the suppression strategy is increasingly discussed by the health authorities and is clearly being evaluated as potentially a Tuomisto et al. REINA model and destructive policies 2020-04-08 page 3 / 29 better option. Moreover, the very stringent mobility restrictions currently in place appear based on the REINA model to be sufficient to practically eradicate the virus if continued until fall 2020. The mitigation strategy would call for relaxation of restrictions, and this has been modelled by under the mitigation strategy simulations discussed in this study. Tuomisto and coworkers (2020) define " destructive policies " as policies that have better alternatives according to scientific knowledge. This concept was used in this work as a criterion to identify whether there were policy strategies that should be abandoned. For example, can it be shown that the suppression strategy (as recommended by WHO) is preferable to the mitigation strategy regardless of the currently unknown fraction of asymptomatic infections and other scientific uncertainties?