Author: CESAR BORDEHORE; Miriam Navarro; Zaida Herrador; Eva S. Fonfria
Title: Understanding COVID-19 spreading through simulation modeling and scenarios comparison: preliminary results. Document date: 2020_4_1
ID: ib0cofa4_131
Snippet: We think that the real amount of infected people would reach, at least, 2.1 times the official numbers, calculated from a 3.4% fatality rate from days 24 and 25 March ( Figure 4 ). If the fatality rate estimation changed, the real numbers of infected people would rise up consequently. It is important to remark that not knowing the real numbers of infected people does not significantly affect the power of the approach we propose here, since the c.....
Document: We think that the real amount of infected people would reach, at least, 2.1 times the official numbers, calculated from a 3.4% fatality rate from days 24 and 25 March ( Figure 4 ). If the fatality rate estimation changed, the real numbers of infected people would rise up consequently. It is important to remark that not knowing the real numbers of infected people does not significantly affect the power of the approach we propose here, since the comparison of different scenarios (e.g. reducing R0 after a day or another) uses the same base model. Hence, we can say that the measure that works better in the model, would work better in the real world as well. Besides, the results of this model would improve if we could adjust all the parameters to the real situation. Then, we could build a more robust model. In fact, our intention is to generate further versions of this model with whenever more accurate parameters are available.
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