The end of the social confinement in Spain and the COVID-19 re-emergence risk

Leonardo Lopez; Xavier Rodo

In figure 2 , the most notable results are the growth in the final number of infected (from 400, 000 to 650, 000), unlike in the previous case. Of relevance also, is the appearance of a more prominent second peak in terms of active cases, that would occur prior to the scenario detailed above in figure 1 . Under this assumption and even with a 60-day confinement, the second peak would occur in late 2020. Similarly, an increase in the number of deaths produced by Covid-19 is to be expected also. Figure 3 shows important differences with regard to the previous scenarios where the de-confinement occurs suddenly. And most notably, even when compared to those that would be obtained with much longer total confinements. For example, at this gradual rate of de-confinement, started on day 30 from the start of confinement (March 13), the magnitude of the epidemic peak attained is comparable to that of a sudden de-confinement of around 40% of the confined population. This occurred 45 days after the start, on April 29. In contrast, the second peak in this progressive de-confinement at a rate of 50% higher than alpha since May 4, would reach a lower maximum number of active cases (110, 000 compared to 250, 000) than with the sudden release of 40% of the population confined on April 29. The total change in the number of deaths is also substantial between this scenario and the previous ones.