Author: Toshihisa Tomie
Title: Understanding the present status and forecasting of COVID?19 in Wuhan Document date: 2020_2_14
ID: lmoekp1m_1
Snippet: Pneumonia originated in Wuhan, which is referred as COVID-19 in the following, is now a great fear in the world. The fear of people is caused by no existence of forecasting of the final scale of the disaster and the end of the disease. This paper reports forecasting of the end of the COVID-19 epidemic. As a result of the data analysis, it was found that the peak of the number of newly infected people differed by region, and the peak was February .....
Document: Pneumonia originated in Wuhan, which is referred as COVID-19 in the following, is now a great fear in the world. The fear of people is caused by no existence of forecasting of the final scale of the disaster and the end of the disease. This paper reports forecasting of the end of the COVID-19 epidemic. As a result of the data analysis, it was found that the peak of the number of newly infected people differed by region, and the peak was February 2 in China outside Hubei Province. The decay constant was about 8 days. On February 11, the number of newly infected people reduced to less than half of the peak value. In Wuhan city, the source of the virus, the peak was reached, but the fluctuation of the number of new infections is large.
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