Medical Capacity Shortages Facilitated the Rapid Dissemination of COVID-19 in Wuhan, New York State, and Italy

Xu, Y.; Zhang, C.; Qian, L.

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, every public health system faced the potential challenge of medical capacity shortages. Infections without timely diagnosis or treatment may facilitate the stealth transmission and spread of the virus. Using infection and medical capacity information reported in Wuhan in China, New York State in the United States, and Italy, we developed a dynamic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to estimate the impact of medical capacity shortages during the COVID-19 outbreak at the city, state, and country levels. After accounting for the effects of travel restrictions and control measures, we find that the number of infections in Wuhan could have been 39% lower than the actual number if the medical capacity were doubled in this city. Similarly, we find the less shortages in medical capacity in both New York state and Italy, the faster decline in the daily infection numbers and the fewer deaths. This study provides a method for estimating potential shortages and explains how they may dynamically facilitate disease spreading during future pandemics such as COVID-19.