Author: Huiwen Wang; Yanwen Zhang; Shan Lu; Shanshan Wang
Title: Tracking and forecasting milepost moments of the epidemic in the early-outbreak: framework and applications to the COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: fyh8gjjl_56
Snippet: Thus, we can obtain the outbreak status R t , the number of patients in the hospital N t , and the number of newly diagnosed E t asR t|t 0 = 1 +K t|t 0 −Î t|t 0 , Assumption 1. The time window m and the starting point t 0 should be chosen satisfying V K|(t 0 ,m) < 1 and V I|(t 0 ,m) > 1. Meanwhile, keeping I t < 1 due to interpretability constraints, and the starting point t 0 should be close to the date of the latest published data as much as.....
Document: Thus, we can obtain the outbreak status R t , the number of patients in the hospital N t , and the number of newly diagnosed E t asR t|t 0 = 1 +K t|t 0 −Î t|t 0 , Assumption 1. The time window m and the starting point t 0 should be chosen satisfying V K|(t 0 ,m) < 1 and V I|(t 0 ,m) > 1. Meanwhile, keeping I t < 1 due to interpretability constraints, and the starting point t 0 should be close to the date of the latest published data as much as possible.
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