Author: Huiwen Wang; Yanwen Zhang; Shan Lu; Shanshan Wang
Title: Tracking and forecasting milepost moments of the epidemic in the early-outbreak: framework and applications to the COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: fyh8gjjl_7
Snippet: From the empirical study, we can conjecture that the proposed method may cast a flexible framework and perspective for early prediction of a sudden and unknown new infectious disease with effective government control. Specifically, in the early stage of the epidemic when some regular information is initially displayed, the proposed method can be used to predict the process of epidemic development and to judge which stage of development the situat.....
Document: From the empirical study, we can conjecture that the proposed method may cast a flexible framework and perspective for early prediction of a sudden and unknown new infectious disease with effective government control. Specifically, in the early stage of the epidemic when some regular information is initially displayed, the proposed method can be used to predict the process of epidemic development and to judge which stage of development the situation is at, when the peak will be reached, and when the turning point will appear. Moreover, by continuously accumulating data and updating the model during the development of the epidemic, we can also predict when the epidemic will basically end.
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