Homogeneous Interpretable Approximations to Heterogeneous SIR Models

Wilkinson, Ryan; Roper, Marcus

The SIR-compartment model is among the simplest models that describe the spread of a disease through a population. The model makes the unrealistic assumption that the population through which the disease is spreading is well-mixed. Although real populations have heterogeneities in contacts not represented in the SIR model, it nevertheless well fits real US state Covid-19 case data. Here we demonstrate mathematically how closely the simple continuous SIR model approximates a model which includes heterogeneous contacts, and provide insight onto how one can interpret parameters gleaned from regression in the context of heterogeneous dynamics.