Analysis of ‘earlyR’ epidemic model and Time Series model for prediction of COVID-19 registered cases

Kanagarathinam, Karthick; Algehyne, Ebrahem A.; Sekar, Kavaskar

The COVID-19 is an epidemic that causes respiratory infection. The forecasted data will help the policy makers to take precautionary measures and to control the epidemic spread. The two models were adopted for forecasting the daily newly registered cases of COVID-19 namely ‘earlyR’ epidemic model and ARIMA model. In earlyR epidemic model, the reported values of serial interval of COVID-19 with gamma distribution have been used to estimate the value of R(0) and ‘projections’ package is used to obtain epidemic trajectories by fitting the existing COVID-19 India data, serial interval distribution, and obtained R0 value of respective states. The ARIMA model is developed by using the ‘auto.arima’ function to evaluate the values of (p, d, q) and ‘forecast’ package is used to predict the new infected cases. The methodology evaluation shows that ARIMA model gives the better accuracy compared to earlyR epidemic model.