Estimation of the number of preventable COVID-19 deaths in relation to the restrictive measures adopted in Europe.

Cernuda-Martínez, José A; Fernández-García, Andrea

INTRODUCTION In December 2019, a new coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, China, which has become a global health problem. OBJECTIVEs To estimate how many daily COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population could have been avoided if each one of five restrictive measures had been implemented at the time the first case was diagnosed, and to estimate a multiple linear regression model predictive of the number of deaths per 100,000 population. METHODS A simple linear regression was performed between the days elapsed since the first COVID-19 diagnosed case, implementation of each one of the five restrictive measures carried out by the 39 European studied countries, the number of hospital beds per 1,000 population (independent variables) and the number of COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population. RESULTS For each day elapsed from the first COVID-19 reported case to the adoption of restrictive measures, between 0.611 (p = 0.004) and 1.863 (p = 0.000) patients died per 100,000 population, depending on the implemented measure. CONCLUSIONS Restrictive measures and social distancing, as well as promptness of their implementation, are necessary for achieving a decrease in COVID-19 infections and mortality.