Modelling population-wide screening of SARS-CoV-2 infection for containing COVID-19 pandemic in Okinawa, Japan

Shimizu, K.; Kuniya, T.; Tokuda, Y.

Background: To break the chains of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and contain the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, population-wide testing is practiced in various countries. However, scant research has addressed this topic in Japan. Materials and Methods: In this modelling exercise, we extracted the number of daily reported cases of COVID-19 in Okinawa from October 1 to November 30, 2020 and explored possible scenarios for decreasing COVID-19 incidence by combining population-wide screening and/or social distancing policy. Results: We reveal that permanent lockdown can be replaced by mass testing that mobilizes sufficient target population at an adequate frequency. In addition, solely imposing a circuit breaker will not bring a favorable outcome in the long-term, and mass testing presents implications for minimizing a period of lockdown. Discussion: Our results highlight the importance of incentivizing citizens to join the frequent testing and ensure their appropriate isolation. To contain the COVID-19 pandemic, rigorous investment in public health is manifestly vital.