Use Crow-AMSAA Method to predict the cases of the Coronavirus 19 in Michigan and U.S.A

Yanshuo Wang

The COVID 19 was first found in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December, 2019, and it has been presented a main threat to the public health systems around the globe. As of April 12,2020, 25 there have been about 1.8 million confirmed case, and about 116,000 reported deaths globally [3] . In U.S.A, there are about 561,159 confirm cases, and about 22,133 reported deaths [3] . In the state of Michigan, there are about 24,638 confirmed cases and about 1,487 reported death at the time author writing this paper [3] [4] . The COVID19 is affecting 210 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances. The COVID19 is spreading into all 30 the 50 states, District of Columbia and its territories in United States. Because of the contagious of this disease, most of the states such as Michigan have issued the staying home order to reduce the infectious speed. The author has observed the U.S. and Michigan infected cases and deaths since March 16th. The author was curious that there must be a statistical model to predict this event. Since the Crow-AMSAA model is used for automotive warranty data by author to predict that fits the Crow-AMSAA model as well. Then the author decided to write this paper to describe what the Crow-AMSAA model is and how the analysis has been done. The Crow-AMSAA model might be useful to predict the infected cases and deaths for a pandemic like COVID19. The daily reported data from New York City [12] , Spain, Italy, France, Germany, UK, China and South Korea [3] have also been analyzed by using the piece wise Crow-AMSAA 5 model. The comparison of the speed of the transmission and death rates at different places and countries are also summarized in this paper.