Author: Antoine Kevorkian; Thierry Grenet; Hubert Gallee
Title: Tracking the Covid-19 pandemic : Simple visualization of the epidemic states and trajectories of select European countries & assessing the effects of delays in official response. Document date: 2020_3_17
ID: 5u04irwz_17
Snippet: We have introduced a "phase space plot" of the covid-19 epidemic progression where, instead of time series, the number of daily new cases is plotted as a function of the total number of confirmed cases since epidemic onset. This representation makes clear that the countries considered, within fluctuations, follow very similar epidemic trajectories. It allows an easy extraction of the mathematical law governing the expansion phase and, using the C.....
Document: We have introduced a "phase space plot" of the covid-19 epidemic progression where, instead of time series, the number of daily new cases is plotted as a function of the total number of confirmed cases since epidemic onset. This representation makes clear that the countries considered, within fluctuations, follow very similar epidemic trajectories. It allows an easy extraction of the mathematical law governing the expansion phase and, using the China data as a guiding example, suggests a way to estimate the final outcome of lockdown timing and its strength.
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