Author: Nicholas Gray; Dominic Calleja; Alex Wimbush; Enrique Miralles-Dolz; Ander Gray; Marco De-Angelis; Elfride Derrer-Merk; Bright Uchenna Oparaji; Vladimir Stepanov; Louis Clearkin; Scott Ferson
Title: No test is better than a bad test"": Impact of diagnostic uncertainty in mass testing on the spread of Covid-19 Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: 2jwuzfan_41
Snippet: As would be expected the model indicates the second wave is an inevitability and as many as 20 million people could become infected within 30 days, figure 4. To illustrate the sensitivity of the model to testing scenarios an evaluation was conducted with a range of infection test sensitivities, from 50% (i.e of no diagnostic value) to 98%. The specificity of these tests has a negligible impact on the disease dynamics. A false positive test result.....
Document: As would be expected the model indicates the second wave is an inevitability and as many as 20 million people could become infected within 30 days, figure 4. To illustrate the sensitivity of the model to testing scenarios an evaluation was conducted with a range of infection test sensitivities, from 50% (i.e of no diagnostic value) to 98%. The specificity of these tests has a negligible impact on the disease dynamics. A false positive test result would mean people are unnecessarily removed from the susceptible population, but the benefit of a reduction in susceptible population is negligibly small. It's also very likely the infection testing would be heavily biased toward symptomatic carriers, where the prevalence of the disease is high so fewer false positives would be expected.
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