Author: Nicholas Gray; Dominic Calleja; Alex Wimbush; Enrique Miralles-Dolz; Ander Gray; Marco De-Angelis; Elfride Derrer-Merk; Bright Uchenna Oparaji; Vladimir Stepanov; Louis Clearkin; Scott Ferson
Title: No test is better than a bad test"": Impact of diagnostic uncertainty in mass testing on the spread of Covid-19 Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: 2jwuzfan_63
Snippet: At the rate of 5% of the population in lock-down released incrementally each week the infection peak is suppressed compared to the 10% rate. The number of infections would remain around this level for a significantly longer period of time, up to 6 months. There is negligible impact of testing below a capacity of 50,000 tests. However if the test capacity were 80,000 tests, at a quarantine release rate of 5% the duration of the elevated levels of .....
Document: At the rate of 5% of the population in lock-down released incrementally each week the infection peak is suppressed compared to the 10% rate. The number of infections would remain around this level for a significantly longer period of time, up to 6 months. There is negligible impact of testing below a capacity of 50,000 tests. However if the test capacity were 80,000 tests, at a quarantine release rate of 5% the duration of the elevated levels of infections would be reduced, reducing the length of necessary wide-scale social distancing. This effect is only observed with the more targeted tests, where a prevalence of the disease in the targeted population is over 30%. Any less well targeted testing and the testing would have a negligible impact compared to the untested scenario.
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