Selected article for: "case cumulative number and disease control"
Author: Kwok, Wang-Chun; Wong, Ka-Chun; Ma, Ting-Fung; Ho, Ka-Wai; Fan, Louis Wai-Tong; Chan, King-Pui Florence; Chan, Samuel Shung-Kay; Tam, Terence Chi-Chun; Ho, Pak-Leung
Title: Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong in early 2020
  • Cord-id: 6rj8maql
  • Document date: 2021_10_18
    • ID: 6rj8maql
    Snippet: BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to pandemic that affected almost all countries in the world. Many countries have implemented border restriction as a public health measure to limit local outbreak. However, there is inadequate scientific data to support such a practice, especially in the presence of an established local transmission of the disease. OBJECTIVE: To apply a metapopulation Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with inspected migration to investigate
    Document: BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to pandemic that affected almost all countries in the world. Many countries have implemented border restriction as a public health measure to limit local outbreak. However, there is inadequate scientific data to support such a practice, especially in the presence of an established local transmission of the disease. OBJECTIVE: To apply a metapopulation Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with inspected migration to investigate the effect of border restriction as a public health measure to limit outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019. METHODS: We apply a modified metapopulation SEIR model with inspected migration with simulating population migration, and incorporating parameters such as efficiency of custom inspection in blocking infected travelers in the model. The population sizes were retrieved from government reports, while the number of COVID-19 patients were retrieved from Hong Kong Department of Health and China Centre for Disease Control (CDC) data. The R(0) was obtained from previous clinical studies. RESULTS: Complete border closure can help to reduce the cumulative COVID-19 case number and mortality in Hong Kong by 13.99% and 13.98% respectively. To prevent full occupancy of isolation facilities in Hong Kong; effective public health measures to reduce local R(0) to below 1.6 was necessary, apart from having complete border closure. CONCLUSIONS: Early complete travel restriction is effective in reducing cumulative cases and mortality. However, additional anti-COVID-19 measures to reduce local R(0) to below 1.6 are necessary to prevent COVID-19 cases from overwhelming hospital isolation facilities.

    Search related documents:
    Co phrase search for related documents
    • absence presence and acute respiratory syndrome: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
    • absence presence and additional need: 1
    • absence presence and local transmission: 1
    • active intervention and acute respiratory syndrome: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
    • active intervention and additional need: 1
    • acute respiratory syndrome and additional need: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
    • acute respiratory syndrome and administrative region: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
    • acute respiratory syndrome and local disease outbreak: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    • acute respiratory syndrome and local epidemic: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
    • acute respiratory syndrome and local health care system: 1, 2, 3
    • acute respiratory syndrome and local outbreak: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
    • acute respiratory syndrome and local transmission: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
    • acute respiratory syndrome and local transmission slow: 1
    • acute respiratory syndrome and lower bind: 1, 2
    • administrative region and local case number: 1
    • administrative region and local epidemic: 1
    • administrative region and local outbreak: 1
    • administrative region and local transmission: 1, 2