Author: Lauren Tindale; Michelle Coombe; Jessica E Stockdale; Emma Garlock; Wing Yin Venus Lau; Manu Saraswat; Yen-Hsiang Brian Lee; Louxin Zhang; Dongxuan Chen; Jacco Wallinga; Caroline Colijn
Title: Transmission interval estimates suggest pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: 66ulqu11_29
Snippet: However, in Singapore they based on a combination of cases for whom last possible exposure is given by travel, and later cases (for whom the presumed infector was used). In Tianjin, social distancing measures took place. We find that the estimated incubation period is different, particularly in Tianjin, for cases with symptom onset prior to January 31. The estimated median incubation period for pre-Jan 31 cases in Tianjin is 6.9 days; the q = (0......
Document: However, in Singapore they based on a combination of cases for whom last possible exposure is given by travel, and later cases (for whom the presumed infector was used). In Tianjin, social distancing measures took place. We find that the estimated incubation period is different, particularly in Tianjin, for cases with symptom onset prior to January 31. The estimated median incubation period for pre-Jan 31 cases in Tianjin is 6.9 days; the q = (0.025, 0.975) quantiles are (2, 12.7) days. In contrast, post-Jan 31 the median is 12.4 days with q = (0.025, 0.975) quantiles (5.4, 19) days. The means are 7 (6.1, 8.0) days for early cases and 12.4 (10.8, 14.2) days for later cases.
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