Author: Garman, J.; MacAvaney, S.; Yang, E.; Frieder, O.
Title: SIDIR: Extending SIR with Detected and Isolated Populations for Pandemic Modeling Cord-id: 2p17ml83 Document date: 2020_7_26
ID: 2p17ml83
Snippet: We extend the Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model to include Detected (D) and Isolated (I) compartments (SIDIR). SIDIR improves COVID-19 outbreak behavior modeling by identifying infected populations as subsequently quarantined to reduce the spread of the infection (either in a hospital or self-quarantined). We present the model and provide a case study on COVID-19. The model estimates undetected cases (i.e., those infected but unconfirmed) and extrapolates when no additional undetected a
Document: We extend the Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model to include Detected (D) and Isolated (I) compartments (SIDIR). SIDIR improves COVID-19 outbreak behavior modeling by identifying infected populations as subsequently quarantined to reduce the spread of the infection (either in a hospital or self-quarantined). We present the model and provide a case study on COVID-19. The model estimates undetected cases (i.e., those infected but unconfirmed) and extrapolates when no additional undetected active (rogue) cases will remain, potentially guiding policy decisions that help control the spread of COVID-19 and future epidemics. A live demonstration of SIDIR on COVID-19 is available at: http://ir.cs.georgetown.edu/sidir.
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