Author: Sangeeta Bhatia; Britta Lassmann; Emily Cohn; Malwina Carrion; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Mark Herringer; John Brownstein; Larry Madoff; Anne Cori; Pierre Nouvellet
Title: Using Digital Surveillance Tools for Near Real-Time Mapping of the Risk of International Infectious Disease Spread: Ebola as a Case Study Document date: 2019_11_15
ID: jwesa12u_23
Snippet: Together with providing operational outputs such as the predicted shortterm incidence in currently affected countries or the risk of spread to neighbouring countries, our method also provides near real-time estimates of parameters underlying the transmission model. First, the reproduction number R t for each affected country is estimated over the time-window of inference, here over the most recent two weeks (Fig 2) , second row). We found that th.....
Document: Together with providing operational outputs such as the predicted shortterm incidence in currently affected countries or the risk of spread to neighbouring countries, our method also provides near real-time estimates of parameters underlying the transmission model. First, the reproduction number R t for each affected country is estimated over the time-window of inference, here over the most recent two weeks (Fig 2) , second row). We found that these near real-time estimates of R t were in good agreement with retrospective estimates obtained using the entire incidence time-series (Fig 2, bottom row, correlation coefficients varying between 0.58 and 0.90, Fig 5) .
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