Precision Mapping of COVID-19 Vulnerable Locales by Epidemiological and Socioeconomic Risk Factors, Developed Using South Korean Data

Weinstein, Bayarmagnai; da Silva, Alan R.; Kouzoukas, Dimitrios E.; Bose, Tanima; Kim, Gwang Jin; Correa, Paola A.; Pondugula, Santhi; Lee, YoonJung; Kim, Jihoo; Carpenter, David O.

COVID-19 has severely impacted socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. To support pandemic control strategies, geographically weighted negative binomial regression (GWNBR) mapped COVID-19 risk related to epidemiological and socioeconomic risk factors using South Korean incidence data (20 January 2020 to 1 July 2020). We constructed COVID-19-specific socioeconomic and epidemiological themes using established social theoretical frameworks and created composite indexes through principal component analysis. The risk of COVID-19 increased with higher area morbidity, risky health behaviours, crowding, and population mobility, and with lower social distancing, healthcare access, and education. Falling COVID-19 risks and spatial shifts over three consecutive time periods reflected effective public health interventions. This study provides a globally replicable methodological framework and precision mapping for COVID-19 and future pandemics.