No test is better than a bad test"": Impact of diagnostic uncertainty in mass testing on the spread of Covid-19

Nicholas Gray; Dominic Calleja; Alex Wimbush; Enrique Miralles-Dolz; Ander Gray; Marco De-Angelis; Elfride Derrer-Merk; Bright Uchenna Oparaji; Vladimir Stepanov; Louis Clearkin; Scott Ferson

This analysis is not a prediction; the numbers used in this analysis are estimates, and therefore, when such policies are devised and implemented this analysis would need to be repeated with more up-to-date numerical values. As such, the authors are not drawing firm conclusions about the absolute necessary capacity of tests. Nor do they wish to make specific statements about the necessary sensitivity or specificity of tests or the recommended rate of release from quarantine. The authors do, however, propose some conclusions that would broadly apply to the present situation, and therefore believe they should be considered by policy makers when designing strategies to tackle COVID-19. Great caution should be exercised in the use of antibody testing. Under the assumption that the proportion of people in the UK who have had the virus is still low, it's unlikely antibody testing at any scale will significantly support the end of lock-down measures. And, the negative consequences of un-targeted antibody screening at the population level could cause more harm than good.