KCDC Risk Assessments on the Initial Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Korea

Kim, Inho; Lee, Jia; Lee, Jihee; Shin, Eensuk; Chu, Chaeshin; Lee, Seon Kui

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to evaluate the risk assessments of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), from the point of detection to the provision of basic information to the relevant public health authorities. METHODS: To estimate the overall risk of specific public health events, probability, and impact at the country-level were evaluated using available information. To determine the probability of particular public health events, the risk of importation and risk of transmission were taken into consideration. KCDC used 5 levels (“very low,” “low,” “moderate,” “high,” and “very high”) for each category and overall risk was eventually decided. RESULTS: A total of 8 risk assessments were performed on 8 separate occasions between January 8(th) to February 28(th), 2020, depending on the detection and report of COVID-19 cases in other countries. The overall risk of the situation in each assessment increased in severity over this period: “low” (first), “moderate” (second), “high” (third), “high” (fourth), “high” (fifth), “high” (sixth), “high” (seventh), and “very high” (eighth). CONCLUSION: The KCDC’s 8 risk assessments were utilized to activate national emergency response mechanisms and eventually prepare for the pandemic to ensure the containment and mitigation of COVID-19 with non-pharmaceutical public health measures.