Author: Jouni T Tuomisto; Juha Yrjölä; Mikko Kolehmainen; Juhani Bonsdorff; Jami Pekkanen; Tero Tikkanen
Title: An agent-based epidemic model REINA for COVID-19 to identify destructive policies Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: 9qdl3jt9_1
Snippet: 30-40% mobility reduction appears to delay the peak of the epidemic (as intended) but not suppress the disease. In the suppression strategy, active testing and tracing of patients with symptoms and their contacts is implemented in addition to 20-25% mobility reduction. This results in a reduction of the cumulative number of infected individuals from 820 000 to 80 000 and the number of deaths from 6000 to only 640, when compared with the mitigatio.....
Document: 30-40% mobility reduction appears to delay the peak of the epidemic (as intended) but not suppress the disease. In the suppression strategy, active testing and tracing of patients with symptoms and their contacts is implemented in addition to 20-25% mobility reduction. This results in a reduction of the cumulative number of infected individuals from 820 000 to 80 000 and the number of deaths from 6000 to only 640, when compared with the mitigation strategy (during the first year of the epidemic). Discussion. The agent-based model (REINA) can be used to simulate epidemic outcomes for various types of policy actions on a timeline. Our results lend support to the strategy of combining comprehensive testing, contact tracing and targeted isolation measures with social isolation measures. While social isolation is important in the early stages to prevent explosive growth, relying on social isolation alone (the mitigation strategy) appears to be a destructive policy. The open-source nature of the model facilitates rapid further development. The flexibility of the modelling logic supports the future implementation of several already identified refinements in terms of more realistic population models and new types of more specific policy interventions. Improving estimates of epidemic parameters will make it possible to improve modelling accuracy further.
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