Author: Manuel Adrian Acuna-Zegarra; Andreu Comas-Garcia; Esteban Hernandez-Vargas; Mario Santana-Cibrian; Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez
Title: The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak: a review of plausible scenarios of containment and mitigation for Mexico Document date: 2020_3_31
ID: aiq6ejcq_73
Snippet: • Figure 4 underlines the relative insensitivity of the peak incidence on the rate of importation of cases provided this rate is relatively low (up to 5 cases per day). Nonetheless, the higher this rate the earlier the outbreak goes into exponential growth (phase 2 according to WHO criteria). We remark that running the simulations that (Figures 3-4) ilustrate for a longer period of time, we can detect the existence of a second epidemic outbreak.....
Document: • Figure 4 underlines the relative insensitivity of the peak incidence on the rate of importation of cases provided this rate is relatively low (up to 5 cases per day). Nonetheless, the higher this rate the earlier the outbreak goes into exponential growth (phase 2 according to WHO criteria). We remark that running the simulations that (Figures 3-4) ilustrate for a longer period of time, we can detect the existence of a second epidemic outbreak. With respect to disease spread at a national level in Mexico, the importance of controlling the number of people who arrive infected to the larger airport hubs and bus terminals is of first priority since, not doing it, these can significantly increase the spread of the disease to the other states.
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