The focus and timing of COVID-19 pandemic control measures under healthcare resource constraints

Chen Wei; Zhengyang Wang; Zhichao Liang; Quanying Liu

Naturally, the further delayed had the implementation of controls been, the harder it would have been to achieve suppression. Compared against the alternative strategy of only hospitalizing confirmed cases ( Figure 3B ), Wuhan's strategy of hospitalizing both confirmed and suspected cases won a margin worth a 1.4% decrease in relative requirement ( Figure 3C&E ). Nevertheless, fitting results showed that Wuhan's NPI strength and timing would have been adequate to put the city well above the suppression threshold even without proactive isolation ( Figure 3B ). The benefit would have been the largest if actions had been taken as early as possible and would otherwise have been diminished by January 29, 2020, only 6 days later than the actual onset of intervention.