Using Digital Surveillance Tools for Near Real-Time Mapping of the Risk of International Infectious Disease Spread: Ebola as a Case Study

Sangeeta Bhatia; Britta Lassmann; Emily Cohn; Malwina Carrion; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Mark Herringer; John Brownstein; Larry Madoff; Anne Cori; Pierre Nouvellet

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/19011940 doi: medRxiv preprint q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q Observed and predicted incidence, and reproduction number estimates from WHO data. The top panel shows the weekly incidence derived from WHO data and the 6 weeks incidence forecast on log scale. The solid dots represent the observed weekly incidence. The projections are made over 6 week windows, based on the reproduction number estimated in the previous 6 weeks. The middle figure in each panel shows the reproduction number used to make forecasts over each 6 week forecast horizon. The bottom figure shows the effective reproduction number estimated retrospectively using the full dataset up to the length of one calibration window before the end. In each case, the solid black line is the median estimate and the shaded region represents the 95% Credible Interval. The red horizontal dashed line indicates the R t = 1 threshold. Results are shown for the three mainly affected countries although the analysis was done jointly using data for all countries in Africa.