Using Digital Surveillance Tools for Near Real-Time Mapping of the Risk of International Infectious Disease Spread: Ebola as a Case Study

Sangeeta Bhatia; Britta Lassmann; Emily Cohn; Malwina Carrion; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Mark Herringer; John Brownstein; Larry Madoff; Anne Cori; Pierre Nouvellet

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/19011940 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 5 : Relative risk of importation of the epidemic. For each country with non-zero incidence, the figure shows the relative importation risk (see Methods). Since we forecasted every 7 th day, the risk of importation was estimated using forecasts closest to and before the date of the first case in that country reported in the data used. The date on which risk was estimated for each country is shown in the figure. Blue indicates low relative risk while deeper shades of red represent higher relative risk of acting as a source of importation. White is used to denote no risk. The estimates presented here use ProMED data with a 2 week calibration window. The country for which risk is estimated is shown in gray. The black circle represents the actual source of importation as retrospectively identified through epidemiological and genomic investigations. For each country, the figure shows only the risk of importation from other countries and does not show the risk of transmission within the country.