Selected article for: "real time and surveillance system"
Author: Sangeeta Bhatia; Britta Lassmann; Emily Cohn; Malwina Carrion; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Mark Herringer; John Brownstein; Larry Madoff; Anne Cori; Pierre Nouvellet
Title: Using Digital Surveillance Tools for Near Real-Time Mapping of the Risk of International Infectious Disease Spread: Ebola as a Case Study
  • Document date: 2019_11_15
    • ID: jwesa12u_30
    Snippet: We have shown that our model would have been able to accurately predict in real-time the international spread of Ebola in West Africa. Importantly, our model has very high sensitivity, predicting all instances of observed international spread 1 to 4 weeks in advance. Choosing a cut-off to maximise sensitivity led to low model specificity. On occasions the model predicted cases in countries, such as Côte d'Ivoire, where neither WHO nor ProMED rep.....
    Document: We have shown that our model would have been able to accurately predict in real-time the international spread of Ebola in West Africa. Importantly, our model has very high sensitivity, predicting all instances of observed international spread 1 to 4 weeks in advance. Choosing a cut-off to maximise sensitivity led to low model specificity. On occasions the model predicted cases in countries, such as Côte d'Ivoire, where neither WHO nor ProMED reported any case. However this may also be due to imperfect case reporting. Thus our method could be used with a high cut-off as a highly sensitive surveillance system with an alert triggering further epidemiological investigations and implementation of epidemic preparedness measures.

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