The Impact of Host-Based Early Warning on Disease Outbreaks

Mark Hernandez; Lauren E Milechin; Shakti K Davis; Rich DeLaura; Kajal T Claypool; Albert Swiston

Our results on the early warning-enabled and policy-dependent SEIR models allows for a quantitative analysis of the QIT trade space and provides potential guidance on priorities for the future development of early warning technology. However, this illustration of QIT risk analysis captures only a subset of the factors that must be considered in the formulation of a rational, effective QIT policy. The context of the scenario will ultimately inform where the ideal operating point would be. For example, the number of total infections may be interpreted differently depending upon the virulence of the disease. The tolerance for new infections may be low if the consequences are high, such as if the infection is almost always fatal or is associated with severe symptoms and long-term complications. Additionally, the availability of diagnostic tests may further refine the use of early warning capabilities; a more sensitive early detection capability could be combined with a cued use of diagnostic testing to form a much more targeted approach, reducing costs and the likelihood of a false detection. While the results we presented are a first attempt at understanding the potential utility of a host-based early warning system during an outbreak, a comprehensive risk assessment of a QIT policy must consider a range of factors: