Age could be driving variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide

Houssein H. Ayoub; Hiam Chemaitelly; Shaheen Seedat; Ghina R. Mumtaz; Monia Makhoul; Laith J Abu-Raddad

Total population [7] Median age [7] Life expectancy a For each epidemiologic indicator, the table reports the most probable estimate and the 95% uncertainty interval. For a number of countries, R0 was close to 1 in some of the uncertainty runs leading to an estimated time for peak incidence beyond the simulation duration of two years (delayed epidemic peak). For these countries, the upper limit of the uncertainty interval was set at 700 days, that is the end day of the simulation. Uncertainty runs in which R0 was less than 1 led to no epidemic emergence, and thus were excluded from further analysis. Reported ranges for the epidemic indicators did not include these runs, except for the range of R0. b The estimated time for peak incidence was beyond the simulation duration of two years. The upper limit of the uncertainty interval was set at 700 days, that is the end day of the simulation. c Estimates are for the median (and range). For a number of countries, R0 was close to 1 in some of the uncertainty runs leading to an estimated time for peak incidence beyond the simulation duration of two years (delayed epidemic peak). For these countries, the upper limit of the uncertainty interval was set at 700 days, that is the end day of the simulation. Uncertainty runs in which R0 was less than 1 led to no epidemic emergence, and thus were excluded from further analysis. Reported ranges for the epidemic indicators did not include these runs, except for the range of R0. c Estimates are for the median (and range). a For each epidemiologic indicator, the table reports the most probable estimate and the 95% uncertainty interval. For a number of countries, R0 was close to 1 in some of the uncertainty runs leading to an estimated time for peak incidence beyond the simulation duration of two years (delayed epidemic peak). For these countries, the upper limit of the uncertainty interval was set at 700 days, that is the end day of the simulation. Uncertainty runs in which R0 was less than 1 led to no epidemic emergence, and thus were excluded from further analysis. Reported ranges for the epidemic indicators did not include these runs, except for the range of R0. c Estimates are for the median (and range). a For each epidemiologic indicator, the table reports the most probable estimate and the 95% uncertainty interval. For a number of countries, R0 was close to 1 in some of the uncertainty runs leading to an estimated time for peak incidence beyond the simulation duration of two years (delayed epidemic peak). For these countries, the upper limit of the uncertainty interval was set at 700 days, that is the end day of the simulation. Uncertainty runs in which R0 was less than 1 led to no epidemic emergence, and thus were excluded from further analysis. Reported ranges for the epidemic indicators did not include these runs, except for the range of R0. author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.