Author: Justin D Silverman; Alex D Washburne
Title: Using ILI surveillance to estimate state-specific case detection rates and forecast SARS-CoV-2 spread in the United States Document date: 2020_4_3
ID: 17oac3bg_4
Snippet: To equate this surge to state-wide or national case counts, we assume that the average number of patients seen per week by sentinel providers is representative of their respective states that week. 80 Using this assumption, the total excess non-influenza ILI across the US was approximately 28.5 million excess individuals in the 3 week period between March 8 and March 28, 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 (95% credible interval of 25.9-30.5.....
Document: To equate this surge to state-wide or national case counts, we assume that the average number of patients seen per week by sentinel providers is representative of their respective states that week. 80 Using this assumption, the total excess non-influenza ILI across the US was approximately 28.5 million excess individuals in the 3 week period between March 8 and March 28, 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 (95% credible interval of 25.9-30.5 million). Notably, we find that the ILI surge appears to peak during the week starting on March 15 and subsequently decreases in numerous states the following week; the notable exceptions being New York and New Jersey, two 85 of the states that have been the hardest hit by the epidemic.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- average number and hardest hit: 1, 2
- average number and ILI surge: 1
- average number and respective state: 1
- case count and hardest hit: 1
- case count and respective state: 1
- epidemic hardest hit and hardest hit: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- epidemic hardest hit state and hardest hit: 1
- follow week and week peak: 1, 2, 3
- hardest hit and respective state: 1
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date