Author: Justin D Silverman; Alex D Washburne
Title: Using ILI surveillance to estimate state-specific case detection rates and forecast SARS-CoV-2 spread in the United States Document date: 2020_4_3
ID: 17oac3bg_59
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. : Assuming the non-influenza excess ILI for the week starting March 22 consists entirely of patients with COVID, the probability that a symptomatic COVID+ patient will be detected varies by state but even the highest syndromic case detection rates are lik.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. : Assuming the non-influenza excess ILI for the week starting March 22 consists entirely of patients with COVID, the probability that a symptomatic COVID+ patient will be detected varies by state but even the highest syndromic case detection rates are likely below 10%. Across the US the syndromic case detection rate is 1.5% (95% credible set 1.2% to 1.9%). In Figure S2 we show how the syndromic case detection rate varies over time across states.
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