Rhythmicity of patient flow in an acute medical unit: relationship to hospital occupancy, seven-day working, and the effect of COVID-19

Dauncey, S J; Kelly, P A; Baykov, D; Skeldon, A C; Whyte, M B

BACKGROUND: The Acute Medical Unit (AMU) provides care for unscheduled hospital admissions. Seven-day Consultant presence and morning AMU discharges have been advocated to improve hospital bed management. AIMS: To determine whether a later time of daily peak AMU occupancy correlates with measures of hospital stress; whether seven-day Consultant presence, for COVID-19, abolished weekly periodicity of discharges. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis METHODS: Anonymised AMU admission and discharge times were retrieved from the Profile Information Management System (PIMS), at a large, urban hospital from 14(th) April 2014—31(st) December 2018 and 20(th) March—2(nd) May 2020 (COVID-19 peak). Minute-by-minute admission and discharge times were combined to construct a running total of AMU bed occupancy. Fourier transforms were used to determine periodicity. We tested association between i) average AMU occupancy and ii) time of peak AMU occupancy, with measures of hospital stress (total medical bed occupancy and ‘medical outliers’ on non-medical wards). RESULTS: Daily, weekly and seasonal patterns of AMU bed occupancy were evident. Timing of AMU peak occupancy was unrelated to each measure of hospital stress: total medical inpatients (Spearman’s rho, r(s)=0.04, P = 0.24); number of medical outliers (r(s)=-0.06, P = 0.05). During COVID-19, daily bed occupancy was similar, with continuation of greater Friday and Monday discharges than the weekend. CONCLUSIONS: Timing of peak AMU occupancy did not alter with hospital stress. Efforts to increase morning AMU discharges are likely to have little effect on hospital performance. Seven-day Consultant presence did not abolish weekly periodicity of discharges – other factors influence weekend discharges.