Two mechanisms for accelerated diffusion of COVID-19 outbreaks in regions with high intensity of population and polluting industrialization: the air pollution-to-human and human-to-human transmission dynamics

Mario Coccia

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 15 | P a g e Coccia M. (2020) Two mechanisms for accelerated diffusion of COVID-19 outbreaks in regions with high intensity of population and polluting industrialization: the air pollution-to-human and human-to-human transmission dynamics CocciaLab Working Paper 2020 -No. 48B/2020 correlation between density of population in cities and infected individuals is lower (r=27-38%, p-value<.001). The reduction of r between infected individuals and air pollution from 17 th March to 1 st April, and the increase of the association between infected people and density of people in cities over the same time period, controlling mutual variables, suggests that that air pollution in cities seems to be a more important factor in the initial phase of transmission dynamics of COVID-19 (i.e., 17 th March, 2020) . In the phase of the maturity of transmission dynamics (1 st April, 2020), with lockdown that reduces air pollution, the role of air pollution reduces intensity whereas humanto-human transmission increases. These findings are confirmed with hierarchical regression that also reveals how air pollution in cities seems to be a driving factor of transmission dynamics in the growing phase of CIVID-19 (17 th March, 2020). In the phase of the maturity of transmission dynamics (1 st April, 2020), the determinant of air pollution is important to support infected Model 1A