COVID-19 Control Strategies and Intervention Effects in Resource Limited Settings: A Modeling Study

Pandey, K. R.; Subedee, A.; Khanal, B.; Koirala, B.

Background Many countries with weaker health systems are struggling to put together a coherent strategy against the COVID-19 epidemic. We explored COVID-19 control strategies that could offer the greatest benefit in resource limited settings. Methods Using an age-structured SEIR model, we explored the effects of COVID-19 control interventions--a lockdown, physical distancing measures, and active case finding (testing and isolation, contact tracing and quarantine)-- implemented individually and in combination to control a hypothetical COVID-19 epidemic in Kathmandu (population 2.6 million), Nepal. Results A month-long lockdown that is currently in place in Nepal will delay peak demand for hospital beds by 36 days, as compared to a base scenario of no interventions (peak demand at 108 days (IQR 97-119); a 2 month long lockdown will delay it by 74 days, without any difference in annual mortality, or healthcare demand volume. Year-long physical distancing measures will reduce peak demand to 36% (IQR 23%-46%) and annual morality to 67% (IQR 48%-77%) of base scenario. Following a month long lockdown with ongoing physical distancing measures and an active case finding intervention that detects 5% of the daily infection burden could reduce projected morality and peak demand by more than 99%. Interpretation Limited resources settings are best served by a combination of early and aggressive case finding with ongoing physical distancing measures to control the COVID-19 epidemic. A lockdown may be helpful until combination interventions can be put in place but is unlikely to reduce annual mortality or healthcare demand.